What is cybernetics?


Cybernetics
is the interdisciplinary study of the structure of regulatory systems. Cybernetics is closely related to control theory and systems theory. Both in its origins and in its evolution in the second-half of the 20th century, cybernetics is equally applicable to physical and social (that is, language-based) systems.

Contemporary cybernetics began as an interdisciplinary study connecting the fields of control systems, electrical network theory, mechanical engineering, logic modeling, evolutionary biology, neuroscience, anthropology, and psychology in the 1940s, often attributed to the Macy Conferences.

Sunday, March 1, 2009

Operations research

Operations Research (OR) in the USA, South Africa and Australia, and Operational Research in Europe and Canada, is an interdisciplinary branch of applied mathematics and formal science that uses methods such as mathematical modeling, statistics, and algorithms to arrive at optimal or near optimal solutions to complex problems. It is typically concerned with optimizing the maxima (profit, assembly line performance, crop yield, bandwidth, etc) or minima (loss, risk, etc.) of some objective function. Operations research helps management achieve its goals using scientific methods.



Overview

The terms operations research and management science are often used synonymously. When a distinction is drawn, management science generally implies a closer relationship to the problems of business management. The field of operations research is closely related to Industrial engineering. Industrial engineers typically consider Operations Research (OR) techniques to be a major part of their toolset.

Some of the primary tools used by operations researchers are statistics, optimization, probability theory, queuing theory, game theory, graph theory, decision analysis, and simulation. Because of the computational nature of these fields, OR also has ties to computer science, and operations researchers use custom-written and off-the-shelf software.

Operations research is distinguished by its frequent use to examine an entire management information system, rather than concentrating only on specific elements (though this is often done as well). An operations researcher faced with a new problem is expected to determine which techniques are most appropriate given the nature of the system, the goals for improvement, and constraints on time and computing power. For this and other reasons, the human element of OR is vital. Like any other tools, OR techniques cannot solve problems by themselves.


Scope of operations research

Examples of applications in which operations research is currently used include:

  • critical path analysis or project planning: identifying those processes in a complex project which affect the overall duration of the project
  • designing the layout of a factory for efficient flow of materials
  • constructing a telecommunications network at low cost while still guaranteeing QoS (quality of service) or QoE (Quality of Experience) if particular connections become very busy or get damaged
  • road traffic management and 'one way' street allocations i.e. allocation problems.
  • determining the routes of school buses (or city buses) so that as few buses are needed as possible
  • designing the layout of a computer chip to reduce manufacturing time (therefore reducing cost)
  • managing the flow of raw materials and products in a supply chain based on uncertain demand for the finished products
  • efficient messaging and customer response tactics
  • robotizing or automating human-driven operations processes
  • globalizing operations processes in order to take advantage of cheaper materials, labor, land or other productivity inputs
  • managing freight transportation and delivery systems (Examples: LTL Shipping, intermodal freight transport)
  • scheduling:
    • personnel staffing
    • manufacturing steps
    • project tasks
    • network data traffic: these are known as queueing models or queueing systems.
    • sports events and their television coverage
  • blending of raw materials in oil refineries
  • determining optimal prices, in many retail and B2B settings, within the disciplines of pricing science

Operations research is also used extensively in government where evidence-based policy is used.


History

Some say that Charles Babbage (1791-1871) is the "father of operations research" because his research into the cost of transportation and sorting of mail led to England's universal "Penny Post" in 1840, and studies into the dynamical behaviour of railway vehicles in defence of the GWR's broad gauge. The modern field of operations research arose during World War II. Scientists in the United Kingdom including Patrick Blackett, Cecil Gordon, C. H. Waddington, Owen Wansbrough-Jones and Frank Yates, and in the United States with George Dantzig looked for ways to make better decisions in such areas as logistics and training schedules. After the war it began to be applied to similar problems in industry.

World War II

Blackett's team undertook a number of crucial analyses that aided the war effort. Britain introduced the convoy system to reduce shipping losses, but while the principle of using warships to accompany merchant ships was generally accepted, it was unclear whether it was better for convoys to be small or large. Convoys travel at the speed of the slowest member, so small convoys can travel faster. It was also argued that small convoys would be harder for German U-boats to detect. On the other hand, large convoys could deploy more warships against an attacker. Blackett's staff showed that the losses suffered by convoys depended largely on the number of escort vessels present, rather than on the overall size of the convoy. Their conclusion, therefore, was that a few large convoys are more defensible than many small ones.

In another piece of work, Blackett's team analysed a report of a survey carried out by RAF Bomber Command. For the survey, Bomber Command inspected all bombers returning from bombing raids over Germany over a particular period. All damage inflicted by German air defenses was noted and the recommendation was given that armour be added in the most heavily damaged areas. Their suggestion to remove some of the crew so that an aircraft loss would result in fewer personnel loss was rejected by RAF command. Blackett's team instead made the surprising and counter-intuitive recommendation that the armour be placed in the areas which were completely untouched by damage in the bombers which returned. They reasoned that the survey was biased, since it only included aircraft that returned to Britain. The untouched areas of returning aircraft were probably vital areas, which, if hit, would result in the loss of the aircraft.

When Germany organised its air defences into the Kammhuber Line, it was realised that if the RAF bombers were to fly in a bomber stream they could overwhelm the night fighters who flew in individual cells directed to their targets by ground controllers. It was then a matter of calculating the statistical loss from collisions against the statistical loss from night fighters to calculate how close the bombers should fly to minimise RAF losses.

The "exchange rate" ratio of output to input was a characteristic feature of operations research. By comparing the number of flying hours put in by Allied aircraft to the number of U-boat sightings in a given area, it was possible to redistribute aircraft to more productive patrol areas. Comparison of exchange rates established "effectiveness ratios" useful in planning. The ratio of 60 mines laid per ship sunk was common to several campaigns: German mines in British ports, British mines on German routes, and United States mines in Japanese routes.

Operations research doubled the success rate of aerial attacks on submarines by recommending a shallower detonation setting on the depth charges being dropped by aircraft. The depth charges had previously been set to detonate at the depth where the shock of the explosion would be most efficiently transferred through the water, but submarines were unable to reach that depth in the limited time available after being spotted by the aircraft. Shallower detonation depth settings reduced the distance of the detonation from the submarine: a close detonation with lower shock transmission efficiency was more destructive than a more distant detonation with better transmission.

Operations research doubled the on-target bomb rate of B-29s bombing Japan from the Marianas Islands by increasing the training ratio from 4 to 10 percent of flying hours; revealed that wolf-packs of three United States submarines were the most effective number to enable all members of the pack to engage targets discovered on their individual patrol stations; revealed that glossy enamel paint was more effective camouflage for night fighters than traditional dull camouflage paint finish, and the smooth paint finish increased airspeed by reducing skin friction.

On land, the operational research sections of the Army Operational Research Group (AORG) of the Ministry of Supply were landed in Normandy in 1944, and they followed British forces in the advance across Europe. They analysed, among other topics, the effectiveness of artillery, aerial bombing, and anti-tank shooting.

After World War II, military operational research in the United Kingdom became known as "operational analysis" (OA) within the UK Ministry of Defence, where OR stands for "Operational Requirement". With expanded techniques and growing awareness, military OR or OA was no longer limited to only operations, but was extended to encompass equipment procurement, training, logistics and infrastructure.


Societies

The International Federation of Operational Research Societies is an umbrella organization for operations research societies worldwide. Significant among these are:

  • Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)
  • The Operational Research Society.
  • EURO is the association of European Operational Research Societies.
  • CORS is the Canadian Operational Research Society.
  • ASOR is the Australian Society for Operations Research.
  • MORS is the Military Operations Research Society: based in the United States since 1966 with the objective of enhancing the quality and usefulness of military operations research analysis in support of defense decisions. (MORS)
  • ORSNZ is the Operations Research Society of New Zealand.
  • ORSP is the Operations Research Society of the Philippines
  • ORSI the Operational Research Society of India, and
  • ORSSA the Operations Research Society of South Africa.

In 2004 INFORMS began an initiative to market the OR profession better, including a website entitled The Science of Better which provides an introduction to OR and examples of successful applications of OR to industrial problems.



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